Of the many potential stories, one interesting observation is the more plodding method the Federal Reserve has developed over the years. Rather than exhibiting volatility in rate hikes, the Fed has generally moved towards consistent rate hikes and decreases. Evidence of this is the decreasing volatility when moving from the 1980s to the 1990s to the 2000s and finally, to the 2010s.
The horizontal axis is the number of days the given instance of a rate hike lasted before either another rate hike or rate decrease occurred (remember, this is the official target rate, not the effective rate).
What this says is that, contrary to popular belief, when the Fed does hike rates later this year (presuming they actually do it), the S&P 500 will probably experience a positive return, not negative.The length of the typical tightening cycle lasts 228 days, with an inter-quartile range from 89 to 432 days.